"Political Cycle" in Economic Literature

Ini pula e-mel yang teman terima daripada Syahir:

Sempat ke rush isi mnyak smlm?

No hint at all, tau2 umum je. Kita duk fokus isu shah alam banjir (dulu duk
blame kelantan takde sistem perparitan yg baik. Lepas kedah perlis bnjir,
ni KL plak, kalah bnjir kelantan), tiba2 dpt sms kata naik harga minyak
pula.

Kalau mnyak naik harga, expect others to follow suit la, everything.
Interest rate also expected to increase, thus inflation is heading loh, the
'cost-push' inflation.

In economic literature, there is a concept called 'political
cycle', in which govt will cut tax + increase spending one year b4
election, followed by inflation for few years, then another generous cut tax +
increase govt spending one year before election, as the citizen
normally will forget the suffer they had for few years, as replaced with a
complecent one year that they have during the elction year.

govt gave a lot of reason i.e world price increase, higher subsidy,
development budget, and no increase till year end (another 9 month only), still
the issue is the management of country's wealth. kalau nk tau la, tiap kali
mnyak naik harga, petronas wajib untung besar. Shell, Esso, BP ni sbg
operator mnyak di malaysia, Petronas is the owner, ada la dia pnya calculation
bg untung petronas.

Ofis mate pesan, 'syahir, dont buy car la, we all go by bicycle after
this'. election sarawak pun dah dekat, masing2 duk marah govt. MAS pun nak naik
harga, lg la diorg marah. Siap sorang tu kata 'u nnt balik kelantan, vote Nik
Aziz, PakLah xleh pkai' kita gelak je la.

I believe semua rakyat marah, but tengok la lama mana it's
burning.